Phenological mismatch in the Blue-footed Booby
How declining environmental predictability erodes reproductive success
This website presents the full reproducible workflow for our study of how increasing environmental unpredictability affects bloom timing, phenological mismatch, and reproductive success in the Blue-footed Booby.
Climate change may erode reproductive performance not only by shifting the average timing of environmental events, but by making those events less predictable from year to year.
Website structure
Main analysis
1. Bloom onset
Definition, extraction, and temporal patterns in bloom timing.
2. Phenological mismatches
Quantification of mismatch between breeding and marine productivity.
3. Model fitting
Statistical models linking mismatch and reproductive outcomes.
4. Diagnostics
Model checks, posterior diagnostics, and robustness assessment.
5. Full summaries
Complete model summaries and supporting outputs.
Appendices
Sensitivity analyses
Alternative bloom definitions and robustness checks.
Figure code
Code used to generate figures and visual outputs.
Recommended reading path
If you are new to the project, a good sequence is:
- Bloom onset
- Phenological mismatches
- Model fitting
- Diagnostics
- Full summaries
Reproducibility
All analyses and outputs shown here are generated from the project workflow and linked to the public GitHub repository.